393 Strawberry Walk

Loganville, GA 30052

$439,000D-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,343 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,007/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax + insurance: −$780
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-748/mo
• Annual: $-8,977/yr
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.30%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $122,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $439k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-748 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (30.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (31.5% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $301k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#39 in GA, #4,689 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 858 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $439k implies a 2827% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.