3004 Summer Hill Pl

Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$53,900B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 486 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax + insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $501/mo
• Annual: $6,016/yr
• Cap rate: 17.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.86%
• DSCR: 2.77
• 1% rule: 2.64%
• Cash to close: $15,092

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $54k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $116 of equity ($373 loan paydown + $-257 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 5.7% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.