3004 Summer Hill Pl · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$53,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 486 sqft · Condo public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1985 $111/sqft · at area comps Est $52k · at est. $300/mo HOA · 21% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare end unit condo on the first level of Summer Hill! This is a great place to enjoy your weekends in Fairfield Bay, use of long or short term rental, or live full-time! Call today to see a great unit!

Key facts

• $300 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $116 of equity ($373 loan paydown + $-257 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $49,049 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.86%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,095
• List price: $53,900
• Delta: 3.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $29,331
• Equity at exit: $14,379

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $73,112
• Equity at exit: $16,300

Cash invested: $15,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $189/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $53,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $532	-5% $517	+0% $501	+5% $486	+10% $471
Rent	-10% $389	-5% $445	+0% $501	+5% $557	+10% $614
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $515	base $501	+0.5pp $487	+1.0pp $473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,475
• Closing costs: $1,617
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $53,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $53,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $53,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $53,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $53,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $53,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $53,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $53,900 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $53,900 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $53,900 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $53,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $53,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $53,900 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $53,900 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $53,900 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $53,900 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $53,900 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-03-17
    listed $53,900 New Listing 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Rare end unit condo on the first level of Summer Hill! This is a great place to enjoy your weekends in Fairfield Bay, use of long or short term rental, or live full-time! Call today to see a great unit!

19. 2026-03-15
    historical
20. 2026-03-13
    price $58,500
21. 2025-10-20
    listed $59,900 New Listing
22. 2025-04-04
    status Back on Market
23. 2025-04-04
    soldstatus $50,500
24. 2025-04-03
    soldstatus $50,500 Sold
25. 2025-03-17
    historical
26. 2025-01-20
    price $49,500
27. 2025-01-03
    price $57,500
28. 2024-11-01
    listed $58,000 New Listing
29. 2024-04-04
    soldstatus $64,000
30. 2018-02-16
    soldstatus $25,000
31. 2016-12-30
    soldstatus $14,000
32. 2005-03-21
    soldstatus $80,000
33. 1997-05-09
    soldstatus $22,000
34. 1992-09-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $189 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $345 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$156/yr (+$13/mo · 82.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,019
• − Property taxes: −$189
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$1,568
• Taxable income: $5,673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,361
• After-tax cash flow: $4,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+349.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $53,900 CARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $58,500 CARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $59,900 CARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,500 Public Records
• 2025-04-03 Sold (MLS) $50,500 CARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-01-20 Price Changed $49,500 CARMLS
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $57,500 CARMLS
• 2024-11-01 Listed $58,000 CARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1997-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1992-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $189 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.