3959 S 178th Ln

Goodyear, AZ 85338

$509,900F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,639 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,593/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax + insurance: −$850
• HOA: −$120
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-1,596/mo
• Annual: $-19,147/yr
• Cap rate: 2.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.41%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $142,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $510k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (45.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (49.2% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($495k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $259k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Copper Trails (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #466 of 1,109 statewide, top 42%, 994 students, 48% FRL); Avondale Middle School (math 11% / reading 18%, grade F, #160 of 218 statewide, top 75%, 409 students, 78% FRL); Desert Edge High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 1,991 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1104 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.