3959 S 178th Ln · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$509,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,639 sqft · Land · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 6,323 sqft lot $120/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

To be built!! 5-6 month build time. Welcome to the Juniper floorplan--a magnificent single-story meticulously designed to offer space, comfort and versatility. Boasting an expansive 2,639 square feet, this home features 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, a flex room and 2 car tandem garage! The open layout invites natural light to flow freely, creating a warm, welcoming atmosphere throughout. Unwind in your private spaces and entertain with ease! Built with spray foam insulation for added comfort and efficiency, this home is designed to feel just right, every day. Ask about available financing incentives!

Key facts

• 6,323 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size reported as 6,323 (assessor); Directions: From I-10 - South on Cotton Lane, Right on Elwood/El Cidro Drive, Left on S. 178th Drive. Models on right.
• Financial info: Current financing: Non-assumable
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $120 (includes grounds maintenance); Association rules prohibit visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats; Community amenities include a playground and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces; Approximately 2.5 covered/garage spaces (includes 2.5 garage spaces)
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; To be built; Home warranty included
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile roof; Painted exterior
• Exterior features: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Block fencing; Tile roof; Corner lot with desert front and dirt back

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in gas oven; Gas stub for range; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Pantry; Primary bedroom with full bathroom; Low-emissivity, dual-pane vinyl frame windows; Fresh air mechanical ventilation; Multi-zone HVAC; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $510k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (45.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (49.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Copper Trails (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #466 of 1,109 statewide, top 42%, 994 students, 48% FRL); Avondale Middle School (math 11% / reading 18%, grade F, #160 of 218 statewide, top 75%, 409 students, 78% FRL); Desert Edge High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 1,991 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1104 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($495k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,273 (49.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.41%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -44.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-191,732
• Equity at exit: $76,028

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.29×
• Total profit: $-326,717
• Equity at exit: $44,087

Cash invested: $142,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1104
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$637 /mo · $7,648/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-1,596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,612

Max offer price $279,022

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,243	-5% $-1,419	+0% $-1,596	+5% $-1,772	+10% $-1,948
Rent	-10% $-1,800	-5% $-1,698	+0% $-1,596	+5% $-1,493	+10% $-1,391
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,339	-0.5pp $-1,466	base $-1,596	+0.5pp $-1,728	+1.0pp $-1,862

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,475
• Closing costs: $15,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17954 W Raymond St Goodyear, AZ	5.0	3.0	3466	$2,950	$0.85	3d	1	0.21mi
3435 S 177th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1971	$2,195	$1.11	12d	1	0.25mi
3422 S 176th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2647	$3,350	$1.27	0d	1	0.41mi
3349 S 179th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.5	1890	$2,095	$1.11	0d	1	0.42mi
3150 S 180th Ln Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2083	$2,300	$1.10	45d	1	0.57mi
18233 W Pueblo Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	0d	1	0.57mi
4052 S 185th Ave Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	2046	$1,995	$0.98	25d	1	0.80mi
4119 S 186th Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2977	$2,350	$0.79	45d	1	0.89mi
17456 W Ashley Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,350	$1.33	0d	1	1.02mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	3d	1	1.17mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	6d	1	1.17mi
17458 W Hilton Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,351	$0.94	0d	1	1.19mi
2506 S 186th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	3100	$30,000	$9.68	0d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $509,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $509,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $509,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $509,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-04-18
   listed $509,900 Active
6. 2023-12-28
   soldstatus $5,186,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,562
• − Property taxes: −$7,648
• − Insurance: −$2,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,489
• − Management: −$2,489
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$14,833
• Taxable loss: −$28,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,936
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Agua Fria Union High School District (4289)
• NCES district ID: 0400450
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $64,107
• Composite: 27.92/100
• National rank: #6865
• State rank: #99 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-90.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $509,900 ARMLS
• 2023-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $5,186,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $223 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.