7439 E 22 1/2 Rd

Cedar Creek, MI 49663

$200,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Built 1872 · SingleFamily · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,239/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-404/mo
• Annual: $-4,843/yr
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.65%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-404 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (38.1% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manton Consolidated Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #296 of 540 in MI (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manton Consolidated Elem School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #382 of 1,397 statewide, top 30%, 367 students, 59% FRL); Manton Consolidated Middle School (math 19% / reading 40%, grade F, #343 of 493 statewide, top 72%, 304 students, 54% FRL); Manton Consolidated High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #441 of 713 statewide, top 64%, 285 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1872 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Wexford County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wexford County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $200k implies a 456% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1872 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.