7439 E 22 1/2 Rd · Manton, MI 49663

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 1872 2.05 ac lot $118/sqft · 15% above area Est $174k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1 1/4 story farmhouse on just over 2 acres. Some updates, partial basement, small det workshop/storage barn. 3 beds 2 baths. Great location for those looking to be away from it all. Few homes in the immediate area. Nice covered front porch. Home needs some updates, but some of it as already been updated.

Key facts

• Small det workshop
• Covered front porch
• Partial basement

Tags

• 1 1/4 STORY FARMHOUSE
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• SMALL DET WORKSHOP
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-404 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (38.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#149 in MI, #3,735 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, employment F.
• Manton Consolidated Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #296 of 540 in MI (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manton Consolidated Elem School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #382 of 1,397 statewide, top 30%, 367 students, 59% FRL); Manton Consolidated Middle School (math 19% / reading 40%, grade F, #343 of 493 statewide, top 72%, 304 students, 54% FRL); Manton Consolidated High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #441 of 713 statewide, top 64%, 285 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Wexford County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wexford County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $200k implies a 456% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1872 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,866 (38.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1872 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.65%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,380
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: 14.69%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1248 N 39 Rd	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,565 (-8%)	13mo	$175,000	$112	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $83,238
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $265,374
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49663

• Home prices YoY: 13.9%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $141,596

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-265	-5% $-335	+0% $-404	+5% $-473	+10% $-542
Rent	-10% $-501	-5% $-453	+0% $-404	+5% $-355	+10% $-306
Rate	-1.0pp $-303	-0.5pp $-353	base $-404	+0.5pp $-455	+1.0pp $-508

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $200,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $200,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 58 DOM
19. 2026-03-31
    listed $200,000 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    1 1/4 story farmhouse on just over 2 acres. Some updates, partial basement, small det workshop/storage barn. 3 beds 2 baths. Great location for those looking to be away from it all. Few homes in the immediate area. Nice covered front porch. Home needs some updates, but some of it as already been updated.

20. 2026-03-31
    listed $200,000 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    1 1/4 story farmhouse on just over 2 acres. Some updates, partial basement, small det workshop/storage barn. 3 beds 2 baths. Great location for those looking to be away from it all. Few homes in the immediate area. Nice covered front porch. Home needs some updates, but some of it as already been updated.

21. 2023-01-05
    historical
22. 2023-01-05
    historical
23. 2022-07-05
    listed $179,900 Active
24. 2022-07-05
    listed $179,900
25. 2017-12-19
    soldstatus $36,000
26. 1997-06-16
    soldstatus $19,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,189
• − Management: −$1,189
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$8,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,049
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manton Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 2622500
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,363
• Composite: 29.46/100
• National rank: #6511
• State rank: #296 of 540 in MI

Livability — Manton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #3735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,132

Population outlook (Wexford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,399 people
• By 2030: 31,692 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 29,789 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 27,473 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 21,822 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 15,237 · -53.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wexford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.4pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+34.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 58.53%
• Current HPI: 480.8896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+910.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $200,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $200,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-01-05 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-01-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-05 Listed $179,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-07-05 Listed $179,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $19,800 Public Records

Property tax history

-17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $340 · -73.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.