Tm Trade

Connerton, FL 34637

$622,000D+

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,629 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,262
• Tax + insurance: −$1,162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,042
• Net cashflow: $-505/mo
• Annual: $-6,055/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $174,160

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $622k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $549k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $496k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($613k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $496k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,961/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 96% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.