Tm Trade · Connerton, FL 34637

$622,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,629 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $787k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Providing the advantages of space, Whitney is the largest floorplan in this collection with ample room to grow and entertain. A cohesive open floorplan promotes effortless transitions between the family room, kitchen and café, while sliding glass doors lead to the covered patio. Throughout the home is a total of five bedrooms, including the first-floor owner's suite with a luxurious adjoining bathroom. A flex space, upstairs loft with an included wet bar and three-car garage offer additional room for versatile needs.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Open floorplan
• Covered patio

Tags

• LARGEST FLOORPLAN
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• FIRST-FLOOR OWNER'S SUITE
• LUXURIOUS ADJOINING BATHROOM
• UPSTAIRS LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $606,900

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / 3 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family property (Whitney plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 3629; Spec construction
• Exterior features: Located in Land O' Lakes, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Whitney plan; Active listing (last updated May 29, 2026)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $622k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $549k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $496k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $496k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,961/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 96% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($613k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $496,087 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $787,493
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21251 Snowy Orchid Ter	0.23mi	5/4.0	3,336 (-8%)	3mo	$775,000	$232	73
9515 Little Bluestem Dr	0.37mi	5/4.5	3,231 (-11%)	4mo	$710,000	$220	60
8884 Bella Vita Cir	0.59mi	5/4.5	3,786 (+4%)	8mo	$647,000	$171	57
21662 Snowy Orchid Ter	0.30mi	5/4.0	3,336 (-8%)	24mo	$679,000	$204	52
21744 Violet Periwinkle Dr	0.30mi	5/4.5	3,283 (-10%)	22mo	$634,900	$193	50
8945 Bella Vita Cir	0.52mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,378 (-7%)	9mo	$695,000	$206	50
8766 Shadyside Ln	0.74mi	5/5.0	3,282 (-10%)	10mo	$724,900	$221	37
9323 Bella Vita Cir	0.73mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,249 (-10%)	11mo	$655,000	$202	32
8899 Bella Vita Cir	0.57mi	4/3.5 (-1)	4,006 (+10%)	23mo	$870,000	$217	30
8701 Emeraldwood Way	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,274 (-10%)	23mo	$822,500	$251	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-93,783
• Equity at exit: $134,227

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-86,815
• Equity at exit: $127,794

Cash invested: $174,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$778 /mo · $9,330/yr
• Insurance: −$259
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,042
• Net cashflow: $-505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,600

Max offer price $548,980

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $155,500
• Closing costs: $18,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8947 Garden Party Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.5	3110	$4,000	$1.29	11d	1	1.05mi
20411 Lace Cascade Rd Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.5	4359	$5,400	$1.24	24d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $622,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $621,750 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $621,750 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $621,750 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $621,750 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $621,750 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $621,500 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $621,500 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $621,500 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $617,500 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $610,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $610,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $610,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $610,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,842
• − Property taxes: −$9,330
• − Insurance: −$4,612
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,762
• − Management: −$4,762
• − Depreciation: −$18,095
• Taxable loss: −$16,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,050
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. The home has a good roof and solid foundation, and the HVAC system is in good condition. The home has a good resale and rental value with a few minor updates that could further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior shutters — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Replace sliding glass doors — Improves natural light and ventilation
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior shutters — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace sliding glass doors — Improves natural light and ventilation ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B