404 Turner St

Elida, NM 88116

$119,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,703 sqft · Built — · Other · Pending · 686 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,219/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $260/mo
• Annual: $3,120/yr
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.29%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 686 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#184 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Elida Municipal Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #23 of 29 in NM (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 31 units permitted in Roosevelt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roosevelt County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 686 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.