7880 Palm Aire Ln #203

Desoto Lakes, FL 34243

$229,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1977 · Condo · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,733/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$698
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-140/mo
• Annual: $-1,677/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (10.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#189 in FL, #3,003 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marjorie G. Kinnan Elementary School (math 60% / reading 49%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 516 students, 73% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.1%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 11350% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Desoto Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?