815 Elk Creek Rd

Happy Camp, CA 96039

$140,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1981 · Manufactured · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-119/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-119/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (19.1% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,077 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Siskiyou Union High (rural): math 25% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #763 of 1,400 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Happy Camp Union Elementary (math 24% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,256 of 1,571 statewide, top 81%, 107 students, 68% FRL); Happy Camp High (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #332 of 1,170 statewide, top 30%, 60 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 12% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $99k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.