815 Elk Creek Rd · Happy Camp, CA 96039

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 1981

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

FIXER UPPER - 3 bedroom home with attached garage on just over an acre of land. Beautiful knotty pine. Woodstove heat. City water & amp; septics. Owner will finance.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Septic
• City water

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• KNOTTY PINE
• WOODSTOVE HEAT
• CITY WATER
• SEPTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-119/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,077 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Siskiyou Union High (rural): math 25% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #763 of 1,400 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Happy Camp Union Elementary (math 24% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,256 of 1,571 statewide, top 81%, 107 students, 68% FRL); Happy Camp High (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #332 of 1,170 statewide, top 30%, 60 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 12% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $99k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,195 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-22,579
• Equity at exit: $21,682

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-19,914
• Equity at exit: $13,496

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96039

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,339/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,144

Max offer price $138,254

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $30	+0% $-10	+5% $-50	+10% $-89
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-55	+0% $-10	+5% $35	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $26	base $-10	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-05-26
    listed $140,000 Active
20. 2012-06-01
    soldstatus $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,339 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,339 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 44 unhealthy d/yr today · 44 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,339
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,087
• − Management: −$1,087
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$611
• After-tax cash flow: $492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siskiyou Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636940
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,293
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9605
• State rank: #763 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Happy Camp

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1077
• US rank: #25308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Happy Camp, CA
• Population (ZIP): 647

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Two or more races 19% Native American 19% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.87%
• Current HPI: 131.2832
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+41.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $140,000 FSBO.com
• 2012-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,339 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.