5041 Myrtle Ln

Seminole, FL 33708

$499,900C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,466 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,581/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$962
• Net cashflow: $652/mo
• Annual: $7,827/yr
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $139,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $458k (8.4% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $458k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#5 in FL, #174 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $500k implies a 488% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in Seminole — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,581/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 734% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.