5041 Myrtle Ln · Seminole, FL 33708

$499,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,466 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1957 9,622 sqft lot Est $695k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. MOVE-IN READY 2,466 htd. sqft 3-bedroom 2.5 bath BLOCK home with 2-Car Garage (newer high-impact garage door), inside mud room with 1/2 bath, situated on an oversized, privacy-fenced 100x100 lot (0.22 acre), needs some cosmetic updates but offers wonderful space for a new owner - bring your creative touch! Bright, open kitchen with Whirlpool appliances features large tile counters with breakfast bar, modern canned lights, and permeates a "Cottage Feel. " Newer windows with hurricane shutters, double- sided fireplace between formal living room & Florida room, tile & field-stone floors, remodeled master bath shower, Kohler toilet,

Key facts

• Large counter space
• Oversized lot
• Bright open kitchen

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• PRIVACY FENCED YARD
• BRIGHT OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE COUNTER SPACE
• DOUBLE SIDED FIREPLACE
• REMODELED MASTER BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $458k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $458k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.8% in Seminole — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#5 in FL, #174 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 565 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,581/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 734% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $500k implies a 488% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $458,080 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $695,412
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5041 Myrtle Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,466 (0%)	1mo	$467,000	$189	99
11119 Cherokee Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,587 (+5%)	9mo	$730,000	$282	72
10804 Boca Club Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	2,291 (-7%)	1mo	$783,000	$342	68
11199 53rd Ave N	0.24mi	3/3.5	2,619 (+6%)	9mo	$1,100,000	$420	67
11215 53rd Ave N	0.25mi	3/3.5	2,619 (+6%)	12mo	$1,035,000	$395	64
5833 Pummelo Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,404 (-2%)	4mo	$665,000	$277	56
10911 53rd Ave N	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,188 (-11%)	13mo	$610,000	$279	56
11674 Grove St	0.60mi	3/3.0	2,283 (-7%)	13mo	$750,000	$329	46
10450 50th Avenue Cir N	0.53mi	3/3.5	2,173 (-12%)	23mo	$599,000	$276	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-53,117
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-45,578
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33708

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 565
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,581 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,641/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$962
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,755

Max offer price $499,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $935	-5% $794	+0% $652	+5% $511	+10% $369
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $471	+0% $652	+5% $833	+10% $1,014
Rate	-1.0pp $904	-0.5pp $779	base $652	+0.5pp $523	+1.0pp $391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11525 59th Ter Seminole, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,676	$1.54	14d	1	0.74mi
5828 Oakhurst Dr Seminole, FL	3.0	3.0	2472	$4,000	$1.62	3d	1	0.84mi
5434 Oakhurst Dr Seminole, FL	3.0	2.0	1719	$6,000	$3.49	25d	1	0.85mi
10341 Kumquat Ln Seminole, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$4,975	$3.12	25d	1	0.90mi
400 150th Ave #402 Madeira Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2012	$5,000	$2.49	4d	1	0.98mi
821 Bay Point Dr Madeira Beach, FL	4.0	5.0	3088	$11,000	$3.56	5d	1	1.04mi
15565 Gulf Blvd Redington Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1678	$3,600	$2.15	8d	1	1.16mi
10 158th Ave Redington Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1700	$2,975	$1.75	25d	1	1.21mi
16109 3rd St E Redington Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1772	$5,500	$3.10	4d	1	1.29mi
5784 Bay Pines Lakes Blvd Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$4,300	$2.45	4d	1	1.32mi
16033 Gulf Blvd Redington Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2902	$7,500	$2.58	25d	1	1.35mi
700 Pruitt Dr Madeira Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1780	$4,300	$2.42	5d	1	1.40mi
10405 Addison Way Seminole, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1133	$2,895	$2.56	2d	18	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $499,900
3. 2026-03-19
   listed $520,000 Active
4. 1989-09-01
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,641 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,149 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,508/yr (+$209/mo · 152.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,641
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,398
• − Management: −$4,398
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$123
• After-tax cash flow: $7,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Seminole

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #174

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 42,315
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,060
• Household income: $82,500
• Rent vs Own: 24.2% rent · 75.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -663.41%
• Current HPI: 317.0675
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.77%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+488.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $499,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $520,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,641 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.