21823 Willow River Canyon Ln

Waller, TX 77484

$218,500D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,917/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,146
• Tax + insurance: −$610
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-241/mo
• Annual: $-2,890/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.72%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $61,180

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (12.3% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $112k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.