Is 21823 Willow River Canyon Ln in Waller, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.0% cap rate and $-241/mo modeled cash flow at a $218,500 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 21823 Willow River Canyon Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 5.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,917/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 39.77

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +10.0/15.0
Cash flow +7.8/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
1% rule +3.8/10.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Appreciation +2.9/10.0
DSCR +1.9/10.0
Rent growth +1.6/5.0

$218,500

21823 Willow River Canyon Ln · Waller, TX 77484

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 4,800 sqft lot Garage $155/sqft · 6% below area Est $231k · 6% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

MOVE-IN READY in the newly built community of Binford Creek. This beautiful one-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Finished in August 2024, it boasts a fresh modern feel. The open-concept design in the main living area creates an airy, spacious ambiance. Upgraded details include stainless steel appliances, built-in shelves in the master bath, and an automatic garage door opener. Outside, the fenced backyard features a covered patio that is great for entertaining, gardening, or relaxing with a good book. Enjoy easy access to US-290, SH-99, the outlet mall and shopping in the Cypress area, as well as more. Located within Waller ISD. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

Open concept design
Covered patio
Move in ready

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (19.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (12.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $176k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $112k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,956 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.88% ✗
Cap rate: 4.97%
Cash-on-cash: -4.72%
DSCR: 0.79
GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $231,497
List price: $218,500
Delta: -4.97%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21630 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (+1%)	4mo	$245,990	$173	82
21526 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (+0%)	3mo	$232,990	$165	80
21610 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (+1%)	3mo	$245,990	$173	80
21506 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (+0%)	1mo	$236,990	$168	80
21803 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,273 (-10%)	3mo	$231,990	$182	75
29535 Pondview Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (+8%)	0mo	$269,000	$177	69
21510 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,273 (-10%)	0mo	$227,990	$179	66
29510 Pondview Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (+10%)	2mo	$289,999	$188	65
21647 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+14%)	0mo	$253,490	$158	64
21606 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,607 (+14%)	2mo	$257,990	$161	63
21518 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,607 (+14%)	1mo	$241,990	$151	63
29531 Saddleview Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (+12%)	0mo	$227,990	$145	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -28.3%
Equity multiple: 0.08×
Total profit: $-56,184
Equity at exit: $32,579

10-year hold

IRR: -49.0%
Equity multiple: -0.47×
Total profit: $-89,659
Equity at exit: $18,892

Cash invested: $61,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 28 active · 26 under contract
Months of supply: 3.5 mo (29%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $258,990 ($166/sqft)
Median days on market: 334 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: -0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

Home prices YoY: -1.0%
Rents YoY: -3.8%
Active inventory: 1496
Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,917 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,146
Tax from tax record: −$519 /mo · $6,223/yr
Insurance: −$91
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
Net cashflow: $-241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,222

Max offer price $175,956

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-117	-5% $-179	+0% $-241	+5% $-303	+10% $-365
Rent	-10% $-392	-5% $-317	+0% $-241	+5% $-165	+10% $-89
Rate	-1.0pp $-131	-0.5pp $-185	base $-241	+0.5pp $-297	+1.0pp $-355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $54,625
Closing costs: $6,555
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21707 Cottonwood Meadows Trl Waller, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,749	$1.27	73d	1	0.19mi
21531 Colonial Meadow Creek Trl Waller, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,750	$1.06	38d	1	0.27mi
21514 Barnridge Ct Waller, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,895	$1.15	54d	1	0.36mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association: Binford Creek POACommunity amenities include a playground and a parkCurbs in the community

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyFractional ownershipBuilt in 2024Slab foundationComposition roofConcrete road accessSubdivision lot
Construction: Brick construction
Exterior features: DeckCovered porchPatioFenced backyard

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveRefrigeratorGarbage disposal
Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
Flooring: CarpetPlank flooringVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas and electric)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: High ceilingsKitchen islandLaminate countersPantryCombined living and dining areaNo fireplaces
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $218,500 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $218,500 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $218,500 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $218,500 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $218,500 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $218,500 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-30

pricedays on market $218,500 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $220,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $220,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $220,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $220,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $220,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $220,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $220,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $220,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $220,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $220,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $220,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $220,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $220,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $220,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $220,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $220,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $220,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $220,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $220,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $220,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $220,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $220,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $220,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $220,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $220,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $220,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $220,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $220,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $220,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-24

pricedays on market $220,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $225,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $225,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $225,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $225,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $225,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $225,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $225,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $225,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $225,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $225,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $225,000 Active 31 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $6,223 · $519/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $6,223 · $519/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $23,007
− Mortgage interest: −$12,239
− Property taxes: −$6,223
− Insurance: −$1,092
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
− Management: −$1,841
− Depreciation: −$6,356
Taxable loss: −$6,585

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,580
After-tax cash flow: $-1,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready single-family home in Binford Creek is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a fresh modern feel. It offers a great opportunity for an investor looking to add value through minor improvements.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and freshens the interior ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

Score: 61/100
State rank: #1003
US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 14,348
Household income: $81,250
Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
Current HPI: 397.85
Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+12062.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-05-19 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
2026-05-01 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
2026-05-01 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
2025-04-07 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
2025-03-11 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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