481 Seminole Rd

Bismarck, AR 71929

$119,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,133/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $66/mo
• Annual: $795/yr
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($795/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (5.5% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bismarck School District (rural): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 238 in AR (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bismarck Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #77 of 454 statewide, top 19%, 391 students, 65% FRL); Bismarck Middle School (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C+, #25 of 201 statewide, top 12%, 321 students, 70% FRL); Bismarck High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #19 of 292 statewide, top 7%, 308 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $120k implies a 899% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.4% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.