481 Seminole Rd · Bismarck, AR 71929

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1995 6.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The beautiful acreage in a great area in Bismarck. Mobile home is in need of repair but has potential for a good home. Located minutes to travel to Lake DeGray and other surrounding towns this is a great property to develop. Property sold as is. Utilities on property. Owner financing an option on this property. Call today for a showing!

Key facts

• Acreage
• 6.31 acre lot
• Built 1995

Tags

• ACREAGE
• UTILITIES ON PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 6.31 acres
• HOA & community: Annual HOA frequency

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic; Public water; Electric service: Municipal (Entergy)
• Home design: Property described by metes & bounds
• Construction: Other foundation (see remarks); Other roof type (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Metal or vinyl siding; Road access includes dirt and paved surfaces; Sloped, rural property

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating/air: Other (see remarks)
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($795/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.4% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bismarck School District (rural): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 238 in AR (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $120k implies a 899% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,269 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $69,536
• Equity at exit: $108,015

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $201,488
• Equity at exit: $232,939

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71929

• Home prices YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $108	+0% $66	+5% $25	+10% $-17
Rent	-10% $-23	-5% $21	+0% $66	+5% $111	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $97	base $66	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $119,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,900 Price Change 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,900 Price Change 16 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Price Change 15 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Price Change 14 DOM
12. 2026-05-14
    listed $125,000 New Listing
13. 1996-09-06
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,087
• − Management: −$1,087
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$284
• After-tax cash flow: $1,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck School District
• NCES district ID: 0503240
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $42,486
• Composite: 43.73/100
• National rank: #2948
• State rank: #14 of 238 in AR

Livability — Bismarck

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, AR
• Population (ZIP): 4,673

Population outlook (Hot Spring County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,464 people
• By 2030: 34,659 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 34,486 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 33,419 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 21,415 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Spring

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.9% · R 75.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.01%
• Current HPI: 305.8998
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+941.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $125,000 CARMLS
• 1996-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+39.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $118 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.