163 Wagon Train Trl

Bozeman, MT 59715

$81,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 313 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$425
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $1,253/mo
• Annual: $15,039/yr
• Cap rate: 24.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.31%
• DSCR: 3.95
• 1% rule: 2.83%
• Cash to close: $22,680

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $81k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $81k).
• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $71k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $560 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#1 in MT, #537 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D-.
• Bozeman Elementary (town): math 56% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #7 of 116 in MT (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Whittier School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #101 of 293 statewide, top 39%, 249 students, 0% FRL); Chief Joseph Middle School (math 48% / reading 64%, grade B-, #12 of 146 statewide, top 8%, 752 students, 0% FRL); Bozeman High School (math 50% / reading 81%, grade B, #3 of 132 statewide, top 2%, 1,280 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 18% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 309 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,706 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (533 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gallatin County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 2.0% in Bozeman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.