163 Wagon Train Trl · Bozeman, MT 59715

$81,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured · 313 Days on market

Built 1984

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Have prices in Bozeman led you to believe that you will never be able to afford a home? Now could be your chance! This 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom manufactured home in the Covered Wagon Mobile Home Park is fully renovated and move in ready! A large mudroom/entryway and storage shed will provide plenty of storage, and the well thought out floor plan will make you feel right at home. This one won’t be around for long! Call today!

Key facts

• Trails
• Natural light
• Open layout

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• QUICK ACCESS TO RECREATION
• TRAILS
• RIVERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased; Annual tax: $230.42

Exterior

• Home design: Manufactured home (Single Wide); Residential property
• Construction: Foundation: Other
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; See remarks for lot details

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dryer; Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Washer; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $81k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $81k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 2.0% in Bozeman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#1 in MT, #537 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D-.
• Bozeman Elementary (town): math 56% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #7 of 116 in MT (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 309 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,706 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (533 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $560 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gallatin County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $71,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.31%
• DSCR: 3.95
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $60,440
• Equity at exit: $12,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $131,150
• Equity at exit: $7,003

Cash invested: $22,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59715

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$425
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$101 /mo · $1,215/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $1,253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $709

Max offer price $81,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,309	-5% $1,281	+0% $1,253	+5% $1,225	+10% $1,197
Rent	-10% $1,072	-5% $1,163	+0% $1,253	+5% $1,344	+10% $1,435
Rate	-1.0pp $1,294	-0.5pp $1,274	base $1,253	+0.5pp $1,232	+1.0pp $1,211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,250
• Closing costs: $2,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
603 Emily Dr Bozeman, MT	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$1,765	$1.64	22d	3	0.44mi
1062 W Oak St Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	868	$1,900	$2.19	22d	2	0.45mi
2235 Tschache Ln Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0–2.0	788	$2,195	$2.78	22d	9	0.56mi
1481 N 25th Ave Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,050	$2.31	22d	21	0.60mi
1810 N 25th Ave Bozeman, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$5,124	$4.31	22d	210	0.61mi
811 W Villard St Unit 60 Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	865	$1,600	$1.85	22d	1	0.77mi
807 W Villard St Unit 13 Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	865	$1,700	$1.97	22d	1	0.81mi
2710 Sartain St Unit 303A Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.5	802	$1,850	$2.31	22d	1	0.94mi
1624 W Babcock St Bozeman, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,465	$2.37	22d	6	0.97mi
106 Sunlight Ave Bozeman, MT	3.0	2.0	960	$2,100	$2.19	22d	1	1.00mi
109 Meghans Way Bozeman, MT	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	22d	1	1.03mi
1712 W Olive St #48 Bozeman, MT	1.0	1.0	600	$2,200	$3.67	22d	1	1.03mi
2130 S 18th Ave Bozeman, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1438	$2,992	$2.08	22d	28	1.04mi
209 S 19th Ave Unit 1 Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	22d	1	1.07mi
151 S 11th Ave Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	734	$2,250	$3.07	22d	1	1.07mi
2307 W Main St Bozeman, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0	669	$1,650	$2.47	22d	9	1.08mi
818 W Babcock St Bozeman, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$3,495	$3.48	22d	8	1.09mi
421 W Main St Bozeman, MT	1.0	1.0–2.0	857	$2,425	$2.83	22d	21	1.17mi
406 S 20th Ave Unit A Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,750	$1.67	22d	1	1.19mi
311 N Willson Ave Bozeman, MT	1.0	1.0–2.0	844	$2,400	$2.84	22d	4	1.20mi
111 W Lamme St Bozeman, MT	2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$3,100	$3.08	22d	10	1.25mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $81,000 Active 313 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,500 Active 311 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 310 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 309 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 308 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 307 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 305 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 304 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,500 Active 302 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,500 Active 301 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    pricestatus $99,500 Active 300 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    status $109,000 Pending 300 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 300 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 299 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 298 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $109,000
17. 2025-11-11
    price $119,000
18. 2025-08-23
    price $129,000
19. 2025-08-05
    listed $140,000 Active
20. 2023-04-12
    soldstatus Closed 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Have prices in Bozeman led you to believe that you will never be able to afford a home? Now could be your chance! This 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom manufactured home in the Covered Wagon Mobile Home Park is fully renovated and move in ready! A large mudroom/entryway and storage shed will provide plenty of storage, and the well thought out floor plan will make you feel right at home. This one won’t be around for long! Call today!

21. 2023-03-30
    status Pending 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Have prices in Bozeman led you to believe that you will never be able to afford a home? Now could be your chance! This 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom manufactured home in the Covered Wagon Mobile Home Park is fully renovated and move in ready! A large mudroom/entryway and storage shed will provide plenty of storage, and the well thought out floor plan will make you feel right at home. This one won’t be around for long! Call today!

22. 2023-03-27
    listed $47,500 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    Have prices in Bozeman led you to believe that you will never be able to afford a home? Now could be your chance! This 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom manufactured home in the Covered Wagon Mobile Home Park is fully renovated and move in ready! A large mudroom/entryway and storage shed will provide plenty of storage, and the well thought out floor plan will make you feel right at home. This one won’t be around for long! Call today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,537
• − Property taxes: −$1,215
• − Insurance: −$405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − Depreciation: −$2,356
• Taxable income: $14,620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,509
• After-tax cash flow: $11,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bozeman Elementary
• NCES district ID: 3004560
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,664
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1635
• State rank: #7 of 116 in MT

Livability — Bozeman

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #537

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime D Employment B- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Gallatin County · 108,510 people
• City population: 84,228
• Metro: Bozeman, MT
• Population (ZIP): 39,643
• Household income: $88,407
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1884.0

Population outlook (Gallatin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,625 people
• By 2030: 144,940 · +11.8%
• By 2040: 176,266 · +36.0%
• By 2050: 209,250 · +61.4%
• By 2075: 294,207 · +127.0%
• By 2100: 360,558 · +178.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gallatin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 46.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 3.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.2 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+1.0 2012: R+5.3 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -410.90%
• Current HPI: 276.5017
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.20%
• Metro: Bozeman, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

+129.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $109,000 MRMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $119,000 MRMLS
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $129,000 MRMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $140,000 MRMLS
• 2023-04-12 Sold (MLS) — MRMLS
• 2023-03-30 Pending — MRMLS
• 2023-03-27 Listed $47,500 MRMLS