1805 Rosemary Ave

Victoria, TX 77901

$294,500F

8 bd · None ba · 3,612 sqft · Built 1976 · Townhouse · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,694/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,544
• Tax + insurance: −$572
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-778/mo
• Annual: $-9,340/yr
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.33%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $82,460

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/?-bath townhouse listed at $294k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-778 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (46.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (42.5% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (46.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.