Plan 2538 Plan

French Valley, CA 92596

$662,990D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,538 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 221 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,286/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,670
• Tax + insurance: −$1,166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$900
• Net cashflow: $-1,451/mo
• Annual: $-17,413/yr
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.89%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $195,969

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $663k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $490k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $429k (35.4% below list).
• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($583k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $429k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $75k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Meadows Elementary (844 students, 55% FRL); Bell Mountain Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 1,097 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 32% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Menifee Union Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$120k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.