Plan 2538 Plan · French Valley, CA 92596

$662,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,538 sqft · SingleFamily · 221 Days on market

↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Downstairs bedroom with full bath * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Chrome faucets * Stainless steel appliances * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to medical facilities * Local wineries * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Solar energy system
• Dual-sink vanity
• Full bath

Tags

• FULL BATH
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WATER-EFFICIENT LANDSCAPING
• SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEM

🏗️ New construction. The $662,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $699,360.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $663k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $490k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $429k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $429k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Meadows Elementary (844 students, 55% FRL); Bell Mountain Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 1,097 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 32% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Menifee Union Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $75k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$120k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($583k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $428,571 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.87%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $699,360
• List price: $662,990
• Delta: -5.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32521 Cumulus	0.74mi	5/3.0	2,537 (-0%)	0mo	$665,000	$262	65
32118 Clear Spgs	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,472 (-3%)	1mo	$715,000	$289	65
32224 Geranium St	0.75mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,596 (+2%)	0mo	$700,000	$270	54
34611 Persian Lilac St	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,821 (+11%)	6mo	$760,000	$269	53
35041 Painted Rock St	0.63mi	5/3.0	2,719 (+7%)	9mo	$735,000	$270	51
34826 Mediterra Cir	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,307 (-9%)	6mo	$625,000	$271	51
31120 Briar Rose Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,599 (+2%)	10mo	$900,000	$346	48
32324 Orange Blossom Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,334 (-8%)	6mo	$700,000	$300	45
32133 Kale Ln	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,184 (-14%)	8mo	$655,000	$300	43
32387 Clear Springs Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,719 (+7%)	9mo	$800,000	$294	42
35192 Via Santa Catalina	0.65mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,822 (+11%)	8mo	$800,000	$283	38
34897 Ryanside Ct	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,789 (+10%)	8mo	$680,000	$244	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $276,209
• Equity at exit: $630,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $863,523
• Equity at exit: $1,358,703

Cash invested: $195,821 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,286 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,668
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$874 /mo · $10,490/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$900
• Net cashflow: $-1,447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,118

Max offer price $489,918

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-964	-5% $-1,206	+0% $-1,447	+5% $-1,689	+10% $-1,931
Rent	-10% $-1,786	-5% $-1,617	+0% $-1,447	+5% $-1,278	+10% $-1,109
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,095	-0.5pp $-1,270	base $-1,447	+0.5pp $-1,629	+1.0pp $-1,813

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,840
• Closing costs: $20,981
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34580 Sourwood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2800	$3,200	$1.14	45d	1	0.62mi
32689 Cottonwood Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	3157	$4,100	$1.30	45d	1	0.93mi
34715 Ribbon Grass Way Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2319	$3,800	$1.64	0d	1	0.99mi
33014 Marin Fields Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,795	$2.13	45d	1	1.19mi
32907 Cambury Pl Winchester, CA	5.0	4.0	2641	$3,795	$1.44	0d	1	1.21mi
34806 Wind Poppy Way Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.5	3321	$3,900	$1.17	13d	1	1.23mi
34065 Helenium St Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	3070	$3,700	$1.21	0d	1	1.23mi
30508 Copper Rose Dr Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.5	3200	$4,100	$1.28	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $662,990 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $660,990 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $660,990 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $660,990 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $660,990 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $660,990 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $660,990 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $660,990 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $660,990 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $660,990 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $660,990 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $660,990 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $660,990 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $660,990 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $660,990 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    * Downstairs bedroom with full bath * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Chrome faucets * Stainless steel appliances * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to medical facilities * Local wineries * Hiking trails nearby

16. 2026-04-25
    price $670,990 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    * Downstairs bedroom with full bath * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Chrome faucets * Stainless steel appliances * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to medical facilities * Local wineries * Hiking trails nearby

17. 2025-11-12
    listed $685,990 Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    * Downstairs bedroom with full bath * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Chrome faucets * Stainless steel appliances * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to medical facilities * Local wineries * Hiking trails nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,175
• − Property taxes: −$10,490
• − Insurance: −$3,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,114
• − Management: −$4,114
• − Depreciation: −$20,345
• Taxable loss: −$30,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,274
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $660,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $670,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-12 Listed $685,990 Zillow