85 Reed's Holw

Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$525,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,929 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,758
• Tax + insurance: −$876
• HOA: −$302
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-1,415/mo
• Annual: $-16,976/yr
• Cap rate: 3.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.53%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $147,252

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $526k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (38.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (39.3% below list).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($463k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $319k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Stillwater Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #238 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stillwater Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 499 students, 32% FRL); Stillwater Middle School High School (math 55% / reading 62%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 525 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 736 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 1.9% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.