85 Reed's Holw · Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$525,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,929 sqft · Townhouse · 161 Days on market

Excellent condition 435 sqft lot $273/sqft · at area comps Est $529k · at est. $302/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Saratoga Community- LOW MAINTENANCE, LOW TAXES, GREAT LOCATION NEAR THE LAKE. This condo is brand new, large and easy to live in! Overlooks the pond.Upper Floor Left Unit • 1,929 sq.ft. • 3 Bedrooms • 2 Full Baths • Study • Covered Deck • Private Entry • 1 Car Garage Entry into the AZALEA end unit is via a private two-story foyer. Its large storage room and access to the attached one car garage. Upstairs you can comfortably entertain in the expansive living room and dining area while creating in the beautiful chefs-style kitchen. The private master suite includes a large walk-in closet and luxurious master bath. The third bedroom and a study add even more value and space to your home. HOA covers the structure, landscaping, snow removal, seasonal cleanup etc. Lock and leave.

Key facts

• Private master suite
• Overlooks the pond
• Private entry

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION NEAR THE LAKE
• OVERLOOKS THE POND
• PRIVATE ENTRY
• EXPANSIVE LIVING ROOM
• BEAUTIFUL CHEFS-STYLE KITCHEN
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $526k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $317k (39.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $317k (39.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 1.9% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Stillwater Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #238 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stillwater Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 499 students, 32% FRL); Stillwater Middle School High School (math 55% / reading 62%, grade C, #877 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 525 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($463k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $317,080 (39.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.67%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $529,208
• List price: $525,900
• Delta: -0.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Reed's Holw	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,929 (0%)	1mo	$535,178	$277	95
20 Reed's Holw	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,929 (0%)	1mo	$531,790	$276	94
18 Reed's Holw	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,929 (0%)	1mo	$553,810	$287	94
93 Reed's Holw	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,929 (0%)	1mo	$545,830	$283	94
7 Woodlake Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-16%)	0mo	$620,000	$384	68
43 Grace Moore Rd	1.40mi	3/1.5	1,932 (+0%)	1mo	$484,900	$251	62
19 Woodlake Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,170 (+12%)	2mo	$579,000	$267	60
9 Lakepointe Way	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,320 (+20%)	6mo	$600,000	$259	59
58 Lakepointe Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-22%)	4mo	$548,875	$365	55
90 Lakepointe Way	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,118 (+10%)	3mo	$672,144	$317	55
3 Pine Ridge Rd	1.36mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,914 (-1%)	5mo	$417,000	$218	53
64 Putnam Rd	1.10mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,529 (-21%)	4mo	$300,000	$196	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-159,397
• Equity at exit: $78,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-178,980
• Equity at exit: $45,470

Cash invested: $147,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $525,900 ($273/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 12866

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,171 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,758
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$657 /mo · $7,888/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$302
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $-1,431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,983

Max offer price $318,768

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,068	-5% $-1,250	+0% $-1,431	+5% $-1,613	+10% $-1,795
Rent	-10% $-1,682	-5% $-1,557	+0% $-1,431	+5% $-1,306	+10% $-1,181
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,167	-0.5pp $-1,298	base $-1,431	+0.5pp $-1,568	+1.0pp $-1,706

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,475
• Closing costs: $15,777
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Windermere Rd Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	3.0	2415	$20,000	$8.28	119d	1	0.25mi
24 Palmer Hts Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,300	$2.36	0d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail $302/mo · $3,624/yr

• Likely covers: landscapingsnow removal

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-27
   days on market $525,900 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-25
   days on market $525,900 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-23
   days on market $525,900 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-21
   days on market $525,900 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-18
   days on market $525,900 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   days on market $525,900 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $525,900 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $525,900 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-14
   days on market $525,900 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $525,900 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $525,900 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $525,900 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $525,900 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $525,900 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $525,900 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $525,900 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $525,900 Active 136 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,900 Active 135 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $525,900 Active 134 DOM
20. 2026-01-16
    listed $525,900 Active 1032-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

    New Saratoga Community- LOW MAINTENANCE, LOW TAXES, GREAT LOCATION NEAR THE LAKE. This condo is brand new, large and easy to live in! Overlooks the pond.Upper Floor Left Unit • 1,929 sq.ft. • 3 Bedrooms • 2 Full Baths • Study • Covered Deck • Private Entry • 1 Car Garage Entry into the AZALEA end unit is via a private two-story foyer. Its large storage room and access to the attached one car garage. Upstairs you can comfortably entertain in the expansive living room and dining area while creating in the beautiful chefs-style kitchen. The private master suite includes a large walk-in closet and luxurious master bath. The third bedroom and a study add even more value and space to your home. HOA covers the structure, landscaping, snow removal, seasonal cleanup etc. Lock and leave. MODEL HOMES OPEN TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY 12-4 AT 2 REED'S HOLLOW SARATOGA SPRINGS- SOME PHOTOS ARE RENDERINGS OR OF OTHER HOMES BUILT OF THE SAME FLOORPLAN- BUYER MAKES ALL SELECTIONS IN OUR DESIGN CENTER

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,459
• − Property taxes: −$7,888
• − Insurance: −$2,630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,044
• − Management: −$3,044
• − HOA: −$3,624
• − Depreciation: −$15,299
• Taxable loss: −$26,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,465
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand-new, move-in-ready condo is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a low-maintenance lifestyle. It offers a great location near the lake and is perfect for both buyers and renters seeking a comfortable and stylish living space.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Energy-efficient systems can lower utility costs and attract eco-conscious buyers and renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stillwater Elementary School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 High Stillwater Middle School High School C NY #877/1,100 Nat'l #3,934/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628110
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 51.51/100
• National rank: #1721
• State rank: #238 of 590 in NY

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 238,889 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,057
• Household income: $101,901
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.78%
• Current HPI: 382.7429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.15%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $525,900 Global MLS