15448 Lizana School Rd

Lyman, MS 39503

$195,000C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,782/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $190/mo
• Annual: $2,277/yr
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.17%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (8.6% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lizana Elementary School (math 76% / reading 64%, grade A-, #9 of 375 statewide, top 2%, 382 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 62% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harrison County School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 769 active listings in the ZIP; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $63k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $131k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.