15448 Lizana School Rd · Lyman, MS 39503

$195,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1971 1.00 ac lot $82/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Home in the country on 1 acre with lots of space and fenced backyard for the kids or animals. Great Location Just a short distance to School.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Spacious kitchen
• Oak tree shaded lot

Tags

• OAK TREE SHADED LOT
• CORNER LOT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Circular driveway; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Community water; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); One story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Rain gutters; Wire fencing; Portable building

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace heating; Heat pump; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Window treatments; Fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lizana Elementary School (math 76% / reading 64%, grade A-, #9 of 375 statewide, top 2%, 382 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 62% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harrison County School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $63k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $131k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,156 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.17%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,913
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -51.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16043 Mesa Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,111 (-11%)	16mo	$280,000	$133	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,127
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $37,933
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,366/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,541

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $245	+0% $190	+5% $135	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $119	+0% $190	+5% $260	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $239	base $190	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $258,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $258,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $258,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $258,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    listed $258,000 Active 493-char remark
16. 2021-10-01
    historical
17. 2016-03-07
    soldstatus $131,000
18. 2016-02-26
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Beautiful Home in the country on 1 acre with lots of space and fenced backyard for the kids or animals. Great Location Just a short distance to School.

19. 2016-01-15
    listed $131,711

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Beautiful Home in the country on 1 acre with lots of space and fenced backyard for the kids or animals. Great Location Just a short distance to School.

20. 2016-01-14
    historical
21. 2015-06-06
    listed $131,711
22. 2012-08-02
    listed $140,000
23. 2004-05-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,366 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,541 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$175/yr (+$15/mo · 12.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,366
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$979
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$235
• After-tax cash flow: $2,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+39.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $195,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-25 Listed $258,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2016-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-26 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-01-15 Listed $131,711 MLSU
• 2016-01-14 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2015-06-06 Listed $131,711 MLSU
• 2012-08-02 Listed $140,000 MLSU
• 2004-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,366 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.