511 E 950 N #34

Ogden, UT 84404

$80,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 234 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,870/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$1,001
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-921/yr
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 2.34%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-921/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $69k (13.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#19 in UT, #810 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Ogden City District (urban): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #72 of 80 in UT (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln School (math 18% / reading 19%, grade F, #535 of 585 statewide, top 92%, 461 students, 99% FRL); Highland Junior High (math 12% / reading 18%, grade F, #135 of 138 statewide, top 98%, 715 students, 0% FRL); Ben Lomond High (math 11% / reading 28%, grade F, #158 of 171 statewide, top 94%, 1,169 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 75% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 611 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,630 units permitted in Weber County in 2024 (521 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weber County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.