203 S Mitchell St St #4

San Marcos, TX 78666

$149,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 955 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Active · 359 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,316/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$675
• HOA: −$380
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-796/mo
• Annual: $-9,558/yr
• Cap rate: 3.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.64%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-796 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $34k (77.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 359 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $34k (77.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hernandez El (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 525 students, 65% FRL); Miller Middle (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 986 students, 74% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1617 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 94d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 359 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 77% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?