262 Centennial Rd

Warminster Heights, PA 18974

$395,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,151 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,287/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax + insurance: −$429
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $96/mo
• Annual: $1,157/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $110,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $395k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (16.8% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $329k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#447 in PA, #4,106 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living B; Watch: housing C-, amenities D+.
• Centennial SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #285 of 539 in PA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcdonald El Sch (math 27% / reading 53%, grade F, #942 of 1,518 statewide, top 62%, 814 students, 52% FRL); Klinger Ms (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #298 of 512 statewide, top 60%, 579 students, 40% FRL); William Tennent Hs (math 43% / reading 24%, grade F, #322 of 437 statewide, top 74%, 1,774 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $395k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Warminster Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.