262 Centennial Rd · Warminster Heights, PA 18974

$395,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,151 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1969 0.37 ac lot Est $572k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to * * 262 Centennial Road in Warminster Township * * — a spacious renovation opportunity in the * * Centennial School District * * . This home offers a traditional floor plan, attached garage, and generous lot. The home also features an existing framed-out unfinished space over the garage with the potential to be converted into a * * 5th bedroom with en-suite bath * * , creating a possible * * 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath layout * * and increasing the total usable/livable square footage to approximately * * 2,523 square feet * * . In addition the Roof and Siding are approximately 5 years old. The property is in need of a * * full renovation * * and is being sold

Key facts

• Full renovation
• 0.37 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• FULL RENOVATION
• UNFINISHED SPACE OVER GARAGE
• STRONG VALUE-ADD POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Front-entry attached garage with inside access (1-car garage); Asphalt driveway with about 3 driveway spaces; On-street parking; Total of about 4 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: Detached home; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Crawl space foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 75 x 214; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard hot water heating; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $329k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Warminster Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#447 in PA, #4,106 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living B; Watch: housing C-, amenities D+.
• Centennial SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #285 of 539 in PA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcdonald El Sch (math 27% / reading 53%, grade F, #942 of 1,518 statewide, top 62%, 814 students, 52% FRL); Klinger Ms (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #298 of 512 statewide, top 60%, 579 students, 40% FRL); William Tennent Hs (math 43% / reading 24%, grade F, #322 of 437 statewide, top 74%, 1,774 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $395k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $328,677 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $572,166
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
262 Centennial Rd	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,151 (0%)	1mo	$390,000	$181	94
218 Colonial Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,966 (-9%)	2mo	$620,000	$315	69
502 Preston Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	2,175 (+1%)	7mo	$430,000	$198	58
667 Lily Rd	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,902 (-12%)	1mo	$506,000	$266	56
369 Deb Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,911 (-11%)	1mo	$515,000	$269	54
620 Constitutional Dr	0.44mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,329 (+8%)	4mo	$530,000	$228	53
1950 Gibson Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,965 (-9%)	1mo	$560,000	$285	52
551 Revolutionary Way	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,867 (-13%)	8mo	$485,000	$260	50
516 Winchester Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-14%)	3mo	$530,000	$286	46
2900 E County Line Rd	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,830 (-15%)	6mo	$450,000	$246	43
513 Stewart Rd	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,468 (+15%)	2mo	$525,000	$213	36
577 Citation Ln	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,847 (-14%)	10mo	$520,000	$282	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-57,956
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-42,929
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18974

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,287 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,169/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,165

Max offer price $395,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $320	-5% $208	+0% $96	+5% $-15	+10% $-127
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-33	+0% $96	+5% $226	+10% $356
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $197	base $96	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
484 Rowan St Warminster, PA	3.0	2.5	2400	$3,750	$1.56	18d	1	0.31mi
123 Newtown Rd Warminster, PA	4.0	2.5	1950	$3,600	$1.85	12d	1	0.36mi
675 E Street Rd Warminster, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$2,825	$2.49	0d	1	0.99mi
357 Fir St Warminster, PA	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	25d	1	1.35mi
1041 Fitch Rd Southampton, PA	3.0	2.5	1580	$3,200	$2.03	21d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   listed $395,000 Active
3. 2026-02-03
   soldstatus $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,169 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,705 · $392/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,536/yr (+$128/mo · 48.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$3,169
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,155
• − Management: −$3,155
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$5,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,351
• After-tax cash flow: $2,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centennial SD
• NCES district ID: 4205190
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $66,818
• Composite: 37.66/100
• National rank: #4370
• State rank: #285 of 539 in PA

Livability — Warminster Heights

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #447
• US rank: #4106

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C Housing C- Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bucks County · 506,477 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 43,122
• Household income: $103,779
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1080.0

Population outlook (Bucks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 630,973 people
• By 2030: 627,093 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 609,680 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 584,225 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 539,840 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 483,970 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bucks

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -0.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.1 2020: D+4.4 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+1.2 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -380.30%
• Current HPI: 283.9835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+58.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $395,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,169 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.