444 Henshaw Rd

Midway, AR 71941

$55,500B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,057/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$291
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $452/mo
• Annual: $5,422/yr
• Cap rate: 16.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.89%
• DSCR: 2.55
• 1% rule: 1.91%
• Cash to close: $15,540

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($384 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#139 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bismarck School District (rural): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 238 in AR (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bismarck Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #77 of 454 statewide, top 19%, 391 students, 65% FRL); Bismarck Middle School (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C+, #25 of 201 statewide, top 12%, 321 students, 70% FRL); Bismarck High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #19 of 292 statewide, top 7%, 308 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $56k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 2.5% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.