444 Henshaw Rd · Midway, AR 71941

$55,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1940 1.00 ac lot $48/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this home a 3 bed 2 bath home on approximately 1 acre.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 82 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 2.5% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#139 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bismarck School District (rural): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 238 in AR (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bismarck Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #77 of 454 statewide, top 19%, 391 students, 65% FRL); Bismarck Middle School (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C+, #25 of 201 statewide, top 12%, 321 students, 70% FRL); Bismarck High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #19 of 292 statewide, top 7%, 308 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($384 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $56k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,170 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.89%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,405
• List price: $55,500
• Delta: -71.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $35,480
• Equity at exit: $24,955

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $86,003
• Equity at exit: $38,459

Cash invested: $15,540 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71941

• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$291
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $832/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $486

Max offer price $55,500

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $490	-5% $471	+0% $452	+5% $433	+10% $413
Rent	-10% $368	-5% $410	+0% $452	+5% $494	+10% $535
Rate	-1.0pp $480	-0.5pp $466	base $452	+0.5pp $437	+1.0pp $423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,875
• Closing costs: $1,665
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $55,500 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $55,500 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $55,500 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $55,500 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-05-12
   price $60,500 64-char remark

   Show marketing remark (64 chars)

   Check out this home a 3 bed 2 bath home on approximately 1 acre.

6. 2026-04-25
   price $62,500 64-char remark

   Show marketing remark (64 chars)

   Check out this home a 3 bed 2 bath home on approximately 1 acre.

7. 2026-04-19
   price $64,500 64-char remark

   Show marketing remark (64 chars)

   Check out this home a 3 bed 2 bath home on approximately 1 acre.

8. 2026-04-11
   price $66,500 64-char remark

   Show marketing remark (64 chars)

   Check out this home a 3 bed 2 bath home on approximately 1 acre.

9. 2026-04-06
   price $68,500 64-char remark

   Show marketing remark (64 chars)

   Check out this home a 3 bed 2 bath home on approximately 1 acre.

10. 2026-03-27
    price $72,500 64-char remark

    Show marketing remark (64 chars)

    Check out this home a 3 bed 2 bath home on approximately 1 acre.

11. 2026-03-12
    listed $74,500 New Listing 64-char remark

    Show marketing remark (64 chars)

    Check out this home a 3 bed 2 bath home on approximately 1 acre.

12. 2014-03-12
    soldstatus $27,400 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Remodeled since originally built, one level frame with siding home located on a 1.0 acre lot within the Bismarck School District. Home features: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, living room, kitchen, dining, newer front deck and a detached one car carport. HUD Case #031-369015, FHA Financing: IE (Insured Escrow), Property is sold in as-is condition, no warranties, guarantees or representations about the property. "Contact agent for more details. "

13. 2014-02-26
    historical 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Remodeled since originally built, one level frame with siding home located on a 1.0 acre lot within the Bismarck School District. Home features: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, living room, kitchen, dining, newer front deck and a detached one car carport. HUD Case #031-369015, FHA Financing: IE (Insured Escrow), Property is sold in as-is condition, no warranties, guarantees or representations about the property. "Contact agent for more details. "

14. 2014-01-16
    listed $30,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Remodeled since originally built, one level frame with siding home located on a 1.0 acre lot within the Bismarck School District. Home features: 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, living room, kitchen, dining, newer front deck and a detached one car carport. HUD Case #031-369015, FHA Financing: IE (Insured Escrow), Property is sold in as-is condition, no warranties, guarantees or representations about the property. "Contact agent for more details. "

15. 2008-11-17
    soldstatus $56,000
16. 2007-06-07
    soldstatus $27,000
17. 1996-01-23
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,109
• − Property taxes: −$832
• − Insurance: −$278
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,015
• − Management: −$1,015
• − Depreciation: −$1,615
• Taxable income: $4,826
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,158
• After-tax cash flow: $4,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck School District
• NCES district ID: 0503240
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $42,486
• Composite: 43.73/100
• National rank: #2948
• State rank: #14 of 238 in AR

Livability — Midway

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #12379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,422
• Population (ZIP): 2,240

Population outlook (Hot Spring County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,464 people
• By 2030: 34,659 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 34,486 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 33,419 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 21,415 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Spring

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.9% · R 75.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+101.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $60,500 CARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $62,500 CARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $64,500 CARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $66,500 CARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $68,500 CARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $72,500 CARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $74,500 CARMLS
• 2014-03-12 Sold (MLS) $27,400 CARMLS
• 2014-02-26 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2014-01-16 Listed $30,000 CARMLS
• 2008-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 1996-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $50 · -38.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.