26784 Bilbrough Rd

Goldsboro, MD 21636

$360,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,781/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$407
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-887/mo
• Annual: $-10,649/yr
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.56%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $100,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-887 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (43.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (50.5% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (50.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#422 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greensboro Elementary School (math 9% / reading 14%, grade F, #567 of 860 statewide, top 67%, 785 students, 81% FRL); Lockerman Middle School (math 6% / reading 30%, grade F, #165 of 225 statewide, top 75%, 866 students, 66% FRL); North Caroline High School (math 39% / reading 61%, grade D+, #106 of 222 statewide, top 48%, 1,226 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $360k implies a 414% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.