26784 Bilbrough Rd · Goldsboro, MD 21636

$360,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2022 4.70 ac lot $169/sqft · 22% below area Est $463k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Buyers Choice OF Builder Fell Through - Build To Suit No Builder Tie-In - Lot is Cleared n the Open Country Side -Approved Perc for Individual Septic, 4 Bedroom Home - Plenty of Room for Animals and Wildlife - Short Drive to town of Ridgely - Surrounded by Countryside and minutes from Goldsboro Community Park - Offering Basketball, Tennis, and Playground for Recreational Pleasure - 25 Minutes to 404- Get Started Now and Be in Before Summer! Pictures Shown are Only Representative of Possible House Plans

Key facts

• 4.7 acre lot
• Built 2022
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Improvement assessed at $208,800; Land assessed at $97,700; Tax assessed value $291,467 (tax year 2025); County tax and annual tax amounts available

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private septic tank; Well water; Electric service for heating/cooling/hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Tidal water: none; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level; Two full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Electric heating; Electric hot water; Electric cooling (other type)
• Interior features: No basement; Living area determined by assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-887 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (43.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (50.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (50.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#422 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greensboro Elementary School (math 9% / reading 14%, grade F, #567 of 860 statewide, top 67%, 785 students, 81% FRL); Lockerman Middle School (math 6% / reading 30%, grade F, #165 of 225 statewide, top 75%, 866 students, 66% FRL); North Caroline High School (math 39% / reading 61%, grade D+, #106 of 222 statewide, top 48%, 1,226 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $360k implies a 414% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,102 (50.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.56%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 16.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $463,350
• List price: $360,000
• Delta: -22.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $139,453
• Equity at exit: $324,317

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $454,930
• Equity at exit: $699,401

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21636

• Home prices YoY: 23.3%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,079/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,904

Max offer price $203,232

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-684	-5% $-786	+0% $-887	+5% $-989	+10% $-1,091
Rent	-10% $-1,028	-5% $-958	+0% $-887	+5% $-817	+10% $-747
Rate	-1.0pp $-706	-0.5pp $-796	base $-887	+0.5pp $-981	+1.0pp $-1,076

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $360,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $360,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $360,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $360,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $360,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $360,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $360,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $400,000 Active 1066-char remark
19. 2026-05-02
    historical $400,000 1066-char remark
20. 2021-06-28
    soldstatus $70,000
21. 2021-06-15
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Buyers Choice OF Builder Fell Through - Build To Suit No Builder Tie-In - Lot is Cleared n the Open Country Side -Approved Perc for Individual Septic, 4 Bedroom Home - Plenty of Room for Animals and Wildlife - Short Drive to town of Ridgely - Surrounded by Countryside and minutes from Goldsboro Community Park - Offering Basketball, Tennis, and Playground for Recreational Pleasure - 25 Minutes to 404- Get Started Now and Be in Before Summer! Pictures Shown are Only Representative of Possible House Plans

22. 2021-04-22
    status Pending 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Buyers Choice OF Builder Fell Through - Build To Suit No Builder Tie-In - Lot is Cleared n the Open Country Side -Approved Perc for Individual Septic, 4 Bedroom Home - Plenty of Room for Animals and Wildlife - Short Drive to town of Ridgely - Surrounded by Countryside and minutes from Goldsboro Community Park - Offering Basketball, Tennis, and Playground for Recreational Pleasure - 25 Minutes to 404- Get Started Now and Be in Before Summer! Pictures Shown are Only Representative of Possible House Plans

23. 2021-03-15
    historical Active Under Contract 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Buyers Choice OF Builder Fell Through - Build To Suit No Builder Tie-In - Lot is Cleared n the Open Country Side -Approved Perc for Individual Septic, 4 Bedroom Home - Plenty of Room for Animals and Wildlife - Short Drive to town of Ridgely - Surrounded by Countryside and minutes from Goldsboro Community Park - Offering Basketball, Tennis, and Playground for Recreational Pleasure - 25 Minutes to 404- Get Started Now and Be in Before Summer! Pictures Shown are Only Representative of Possible House Plans

24. 2021-01-17
    status Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Buyers Choice OF Builder Fell Through - Build To Suit No Builder Tie-In - Lot is Cleared n the Open Country Side -Approved Perc for Individual Septic, 4 Bedroom Home - Plenty of Room for Animals and Wildlife - Short Drive to town of Ridgely - Surrounded by Countryside and minutes from Goldsboro Community Park - Offering Basketball, Tennis, and Playground for Recreational Pleasure - 25 Minutes to 404- Get Started Now and Be in Before Summer! Pictures Shown are Only Representative of Possible House Plans

25. 2020-10-21
    status Pending 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Buyers Choice OF Builder Fell Through - Build To Suit No Builder Tie-In - Lot is Cleared n the Open Country Side -Approved Perc for Individual Septic, 4 Bedroom Home - Plenty of Room for Animals and Wildlife - Short Drive to town of Ridgely - Surrounded by Countryside and minutes from Goldsboro Community Park - Offering Basketball, Tennis, and Playground for Recreational Pleasure - 25 Minutes to 404- Get Started Now and Be in Before Summer! Pictures Shown are Only Representative of Possible House Plans

26. 2020-02-11
    listed $75,000 Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    Buyers Choice OF Builder Fell Through - Build To Suit No Builder Tie-In - Lot is Cleared n the Open Country Side -Approved Perc for Individual Septic, 4 Bedroom Home - Plenty of Room for Animals and Wildlife - Short Drive to town of Ridgely - Surrounded by Countryside and minutes from Goldsboro Community Park - Offering Basketball, Tennis, and Playground for Recreational Pleasure - 25 Minutes to 404- Get Started Now and Be in Before Summer! Pictures Shown are Only Representative of Possible House Plans

27. 2019-08-01
    historical
28. 2019-02-08
    listed $75,000 Active
29. 2019-01-26
    historical
30. 2018-07-12
    price $75,000
31. 2017-07-25
    listed $90,000 Active
32. 2011-05-12
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,079 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,501 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$3,079
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$17,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,215
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Goldsboro

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #23778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 913

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 5% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 61.78%
• Current HPI: 326.7439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+620.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $360,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $400,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-02 Coming Soon $400,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-15 Sold (MLS) $70,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-22 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-15 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-01-17 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-10-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-11 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-08 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-12 Price Changed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-07-25 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,079 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.