804 S Concho Ave

Sonora, TX 76950

$129,900C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,641 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,221/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-269/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-269/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (6.0% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#83 in TX, #2,963 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sonora ISD (town): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #189 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sonora El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 376 students, 54% FRL); Sonora Secondary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 299 students, 54% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP.
• Sutton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.