804 S Concho Ave · Sonora, TX 76950

$129,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,641 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1945 0.30 ac lot $79/sqft · 10% below area Est $144k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home on a large lot ideally located near Sonora Elementary School! This property features a well-maintained 4 bedroom 2 bath frame home with a metal roof on a 13,000+ square foot lot. The yard has a precious white picket fence in front as well as a wood privacy fence in the back which makes an ideal play area for children. Located in the backyard is a detached building with several rooms and electricity currently being used for storage. The large covered front porch is so inviting and the perfect place to enjoy the wonderfully shaded front yard. Once inside you will find 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a living area, dining room, kitchen and oversized laundry room. The home features original hard wood floors in many of the rooms and 9 foot ceilings which gives it an even larger feel. This is a charming home with abundant storage both inside and out. Shown by appointment only.

Key facts

• Detached outbuilding
• Spacious lot
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIVACY FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED OUTBUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Attached carport with 2 carport spaces; Additional parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Asbestos construction materials; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Patio; Privacy fencing; Workshop; Sprinklers in front and rear; Landscaped yard; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Laminate counters; Ceiling fans; Window coverings; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups (electric and gas); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-269/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#83 in TX, #2,963 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sonora ISD (town): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #189 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sonora El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 376 students, 54% FRL); Sonora Secondary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 299 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Sutton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,070 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,777
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -9.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 S Prospect Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-1%)	20mo	$164,000	$101	70
705 S Water Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,761 (+7%)	19mo	$185,000	$105	61
214 Sawyer Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-5%)	4mo	$149,500	$95	60
705 Fay St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-11%)	3mo	$129,900	$89	56
108 Kisselburg Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-2%)	11mo	$149,500	$93	52
201 E 2nd St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,396 (-15%)	14mo	$124,500	$89	52
201 Hudspeth St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (-7%)	12mo	$199,900	$131	52
111 W Oak St	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	22mo	$166,320	$116	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $19,391
• Equity at exit: $63,833

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $65,038
• Equity at exit: $102,817

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76950

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,221 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,017/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,249

Max offer price $125,938

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $129,900 Active 607-char remark
17. 2025-12-22
    price $135,900
18. 2021-06-01
    soldstatus
19. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (891 chars)

    Spacious home on a large lot ideally located near Sonora Elementary School! This property features a well-maintained 4 bedroom 2 bath frame home with a metal roof on a 13,000+ square foot lot. The yard has a precious white picket fence in front as well as a wood privacy fence in the back which makes an ideal play area for children. Located in the backyard is a detached building with several rooms and electricity currently being used for storage. The large covered front porch is so inviting and the perfect place to enjoy the wonderfully shaded front yard. Once inside you will find 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a living area, dining room, kitchen and oversized laundry room. The home features original hard wood floors in many of the rooms and 9 foot ceilings which gives it an even larger feel. This is a charming home with abundant storage both inside and out. Shown by appointment only.

20. 2021-03-18
    listed $118,500

    Show marketing remark (891 chars)

    Spacious home on a large lot ideally located near Sonora Elementary School! This property features a well-maintained 4 bedroom 2 bath frame home with a metal roof on a 13,000+ square foot lot. The yard has a precious white picket fence in front as well as a wood privacy fence in the back which makes an ideal play area for children. Located in the backyard is a detached building with several rooms and electricity currently being used for storage. The large covered front porch is so inviting and the perfect place to enjoy the wonderfully shaded front yard. Once inside you will find 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a living area, dining room, kitchen and oversized laundry room. The home features original hard wood floors in many of the rooms and 9 foot ceilings which gives it an even larger feel. This is a charming home with abundant storage both inside and out. Shown by appointment only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,017 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,017 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,017
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,172
• − Management: −$1,172
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,418
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$580
• After-tax cash flow: $311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840800
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $54,215
• Composite: 42.39/100
• National rank: #3239
• State rank: #189 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonora

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #2963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sonora, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,490

Population outlook (Sutton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,727 people
• By 2030: 3,569 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 3,220 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 2,868 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 2,070 · -44.5%
• By 2100: 1,313 · -64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% White 36% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Sutton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.3% · R 83.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+57.8 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+49.8 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Current HPI: 119.0271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $129,900 SAAR TX
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $135,900 SAAR TX
• 2021-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2021-03-18 Listed $118,500 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,017 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.