2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,304 sqft ·
Built 1999
· Other
· Active
· 73 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,489/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$923
Tax + insurance
−$258
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$313
Net cashflow
$-5/mo
Annual
$-55/yr
Cap rate
6.26%
Cash-on-cash
-0.11%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$49,280
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $176k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-55/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (0.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (15.4% below list).
It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $149k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
At $1,489/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 815% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 52 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29