48 Willow St

Macungie, PA 18062

$260,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,187/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$410
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-46/mo
• Annual: $-547/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-547/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (15.9% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $219k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#361 in PA, #3,157 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• East Penn SD (suburban): math 43% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #103 of 539 in PA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Macungie El Sch (math 45% / reading 65%, grade C, #498 of 1,518 statewide, top 33%, 510 students, 29% FRL); Lower Macungie Ms (math 23% / reading 61%, grade D-, #221 of 512 statewide, top 45%, 1,043 students, 36% FRL); Emmaus Hs (math 65% / reading 24%, grade D-, #195 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 2,846 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $260k implies a 443% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.8% in Macungie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.