140 Historic Ln

Cynthiana, KY 41031

$258,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-233/mo
• Annual: $-2,801/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $72,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (36.0% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#113 in KY, #4,911 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Harrison County (town): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #133 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 350 students, 57% FRL); Harrison County Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 607 students, 58% FRL); Harrison County High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #74 of 254 statewide, top 29%, 865 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harrison County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $258k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in Cynthiana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.