140 Historic Ln · Cynthiana, KY 41031

$258,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

0.99 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this one. 4 Miles to Cynthiana, 25 miles to Toyota/Georgetown. This completely remodeled stick built house is at the end of a private drive and is secluded and quiet. You have almost an acre to enjoy with flowers and landscaping everywhere. New Heat pump in 2025 and metal roof leaves very little maintenance to worry about. There are 3 bedrooms, full bath, large laundry, Kitchen/living, and a large room that could be a game room, pool table area, or any kind of work room. Living room/ kitchen is an open concept with wood beams. This would be a great home for a young family needing space for kids to roam. No HOA or fees to pay. Very limited traffic (only a farm behind it )and a nic

Key facts

• New heat pump
• Metal roof
• Wood beams

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVE
• ALMOST AN ACRE
• NEW HEAT PUMP
• METAL ROOF
• OPEN CONCEPT
• WOOD BEAMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable available; Phone connected
• Home design: One-story house
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation; Metal roof; Building area approximately 1,536
• Exterior features: Garden; Landscaped lot with a few trees; Wire fencing; Workshop (outbuilding)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Cynthiana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#113 in KY, #4,911 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Harrison County (town): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #133 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 350 students, 57% FRL); Harrison County Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 607 students, 58% FRL); Harrison County High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #74 of 254 statewide, top 29%, 865 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harrison County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $258k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $165,020 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $125,522
• Equity at exit: $232,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $381,081
• Equity at exit: $501,237

Cash invested: $72,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41031

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $919/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,946

Max offer price $216,769

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-160	+0% $-233	+5% $-306	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-364	-5% $-299	+0% $-233	+5% $-168	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-103	-0.5pp $-168	base $-233	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,500
• Closing costs: $7,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $258,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $258,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $258,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $258,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $263,000
16. 2026-04-21
    price $265,000
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $269,000 Active
18. 1995-06-30
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,219 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,300/yr (+$108/mo · 141.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,452
• − Property taxes: −$919
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$7,505
• Taxable loss: −$7,532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,808
• After-tax cash flow: $-993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County
• NCES district ID: 2102580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $39,744
• Composite: 22.28/100
• National rank: #8138
• State rank: #133 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cynthiana

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #4911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,748

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,605 people
• By 2030: 18,361 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 17,685 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 16,845 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 14,882 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 12,314 · -33.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.5) · D 25.1% · R 73.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -48.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.5 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.31%
• Current HPI: 339.482
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+304.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $263,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $265,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $269,000 ImagineMLS
• 1995-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $919 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.