203 E Pennington Ave

Ava, MO 65608

$59,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · Built 1910 · Other · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax + insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $498/mo
• Annual: $5,982/yr
• Cap rate: 16.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.21%
• DSCR: 2.61
• 1% rule: 1.86%
• Cash to close: $16,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $59k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in MO, #1,299 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Ava R-I (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #177 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ava Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 544 students, 64% FRL); Ava Middle (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #220 of 391 statewide, top 59%, 390 students, 62% FRL); Ava High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 451 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 21 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $59k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 3.6% in Ava — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.