203 E Pennington Ave · Ava, MO 65608

$59,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · Other public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1910 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a great fixer upper with lots of character and great lines. This 1491 square foot home built in 1910 has awesome potential. The current owners installed a brand new roof in 2025 and the HVAC system was put in new in 2021. This property has a nice size yard and is right across from the Ava High School . With the new roof installation protecting the home you can focus on turning the interior of this beautiful home of yesteryear into something special.

Key facts

• Size yard
• Hvac system
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM
• SIZE YARD
• ACROSS FROM AVA HIGH SCHOOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private parking, on-street parking, and additional parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Permanent foundation; Built as residential single-family
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Partial chain link fencing; Level lot; City street frontage; Roads: asphalt and concrete; publicly maintained

Interior

• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood flooring; No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 3.6% in Ava — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in MO, #1,299 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Ava R-I (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #177 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ava Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 544 students, 64% FRL); Ava Middle (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #220 of 391 statewide, top 59%, 390 students, 62% FRL); Ava High (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 451 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 21 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $59k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,115 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.21%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $60,079
• Equity at exit: $49,113

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.15×
• Total profit: $151,152
• Equity at exit: $101,892

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65608

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $423/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $467

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $532	-5% $515	+0% $498	+5% $482	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $412	-5% $455	+0% $498	+5% $542	+10% $585
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $514	base $498	+0.5pp $483	+1.0pp $468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205D Knaack CT Unit 1 Ava, MO	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.23mi
1322 Springfield Rd Unit 7 Ava, MO	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,250	$1.11	44d	1	0.82mi
1315 Airport Rd Unit 9 Ava, MO	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,250	$1.00	44d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 467-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $59,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $423 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $572 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$149/yr (+$12/mo · 35.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$423
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,055
• − Management: −$1,055
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $5,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,280
• After-tax cash flow: $4,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ava R-I
• NCES district ID: 2904050
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,148
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5766
• State rank: #177 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ava

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1299

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ava, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,478

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,395 people
• By 2030: 11,690 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 10,185 · -17.8%
• By 2050: 8,805 · -29.0%
• By 2075: 6,716 · -45.8%
• By 2100: 5,493 · -55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Native American 1% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.7% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.8 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.05%
• Current HPI: 249.1557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+81.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $59,000 SOMO
• 2008-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $423 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.