20441 NE 30th Ave Unit 218-9

Aventura, FL 33180

$296,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Active · 242 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,272/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax + insurance: −$920
• HOA: −$1,137
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$897
• Net cashflow: $-235/mo
• Annual: $-2,815/yr
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.78%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $82,880

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $296k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (11.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $296k).
• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#127 in FL, #1,834 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, commute A; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Aventura Waterways K-8 Center (math 56% / reading 65%, grade B-, #664 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 2,168 students, 32% FRL); Highland Oaks Middle School (math 28% / reading 51%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 774 students, 50% FRL); Dr. Michael M. Krop Senior High (math 21% / reading 46%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 2,235 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 64% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1455 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.8% in Aventura — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,272/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 16% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.