464 Glen Rd

Wilmington, NY 12941

$125,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,266/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$368
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-285/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-285/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (3.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#935 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, employment A-; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.1% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.