464 Glen Rd · Wilmington, NY 12941

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom Raised Ranch with a View. .. This home is located in the southern part of Wilmington. Home to the 1980 Winter Olympics. The property has a wonderful view of the mountains and is set off the road for privacy.

Key facts

• Wonderful view
• Privacy
• Set off the road

Tags

• WONDERFUL VIEW
• SET OFF THE ROAD
• PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual taxes: $7,600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Home design: Residential property; Two-story
• Exterior features: Lot size approximately 3.61 acres; Directions: Take 86 to Glen; home is after Ward Lumber on the left

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Seven total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-285/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (3.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.1% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#935 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, employment A-; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.

Recommended offer $120,799 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $47,087
• Equity at exit: $91,765

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $137,945
• Equity at exit: $179,183

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12941

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,796/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,296

Max offer price $120,799

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $47	-5% $12	+0% $-24	+5% $-59	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-74	+0% $-24	+5% $26	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $8	base $-24	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,796 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,796 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,796
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ausable Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616170
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,989
• Composite: 37.43/100
• National rank: #4417
• State rank: #474 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #935
• US rank: #18181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,477

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Current HPI: 431.184
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — SLCMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $125,000 SLCMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,796 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.