1470 E Spruce Rd

Lost Lake Woods, MI 48762

$135,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,467 sqft · Built 1850 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,260/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $82/mo
• Annual: $986/yr
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($986/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (6.7% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#483 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alcona Community Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #374 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Alcona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alcona County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.