1470 E Spruce Rd · Lost Lake Woods, MI 48762

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,467 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 1850 7,840 sqft lot Est $136k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is a work in progress with the repairs and updating needed, it could be a fantastic find! Three bedrooms and one full bath all on the upper level, Plus fantastic features like beautiful built ins, Woodwork, hardwood floors and wonderful wooden staircase just waiting for your choice of stain and poly. Sunporch out front and deck in back gives you places to retreat to. Extra large living room with fieldstone fireplace will accommodate your family needs. Sq. Ftg is approximate and should be verified by buyer or buyer agent

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• New furnace
• Refinished upstairs

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• REFINISHED UPSTAIRS
• VINTAGE WINDOWS
• UPDATED PLUMBING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Oven; Range; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($986/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#483 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alcona Community Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #374 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Alcona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Alcona County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,968 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,685
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1470 E Spruce Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	2,467 (0%)	0mo	$135,000	$55	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $39,205
• Equity at exit: $79,535

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $112,757
• Equity at exit: $139,842

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48762

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,156

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $120	+0% $82	+5% $44	+10% $6
Rent	-10% $-17	-5% $32	+0% $82	+5% $132	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $116	base $82	+0.5pp $47	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $135,000 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   historical Active Under Contract 408-char remark
8. 2026-05-05
   listed $135,000 Active 408-char remark
9. 2024-02-15
   soldstatus $35,000 Closed 535-char remark

   Show marketing remark (535 chars)

   This home is a work in progress with the repairs and updating needed, it could be a fantastic find! Three bedrooms and one full bath all on the upper level, Plus fantastic features like beautiful built ins, Woodwork, hardwood floors and wonderful wooden staircase just waiting for your choice of stain and poly. Sunporch out front and deck in back gives you places to retreat to. Extra large living room with fieldstone fireplace will accommodate your family needs. Sq. Ftg is approximate and should be verified by buyer or buyer agent

10. 2024-02-14
    soldstatus $35,000
11. 2024-02-09
    status Pending 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    This home is a work in progress with the repairs and updating needed, it could be a fantastic find! Three bedrooms and one full bath all on the upper level, Plus fantastic features like beautiful built ins, Woodwork, hardwood floors and wonderful wooden staircase just waiting for your choice of stain and poly. Sunporch out front and deck in back gives you places to retreat to. Extra large living room with fieldstone fireplace will accommodate your family needs. Sq. Ftg is approximate and should be verified by buyer or buyer agent

12. 2024-01-12
    listed $39,900 Active 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    This home is a work in progress with the repairs and updating needed, it could be a fantastic find! Three bedrooms and one full bath all on the upper level, Plus fantastic features like beautiful built ins, Woodwork, hardwood floors and wonderful wooden staircase just waiting for your choice of stain and poly. Sunporch out front and deck in back gives you places to retreat to. Extra large living room with fieldstone fireplace will accommodate your family needs. Sq. Ftg is approximate and should be verified by buyer or buyer agent

13. 2006-01-05
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,785 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,932 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$147/yr (+$12/mo · 8.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,209
• − Management: −$1,209
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$301
• After-tax cash flow: $1,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alcona Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2602160
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,164
• Composite: 25.03/100
• National rank: #7552
• State rank: #374 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lost Lake Woods

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #13965

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,014

Population outlook (Alcona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,071 people
• By 2030: 8,331 · -8.2%
• By 2040: 6,852 · -24.5%
• By 2050: 5,691 · -37.3%
• By 2075: 4,229 · -53.4%
• By 2100: 3,149 · -65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 8% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Alcona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.7) · D 28.6% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -41.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.7 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Current HPI: 166.1424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+181.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) $135,000 WWMLS
• 2026-06-04 Pending — WWMLS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $135,000 WWMLS
• 2024-02-15 Sold (MLS) $35,000 WWMLS
• 2024-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-09 Pending — WWMLS
• 2024-01-12 Listed $39,900 WWMLS
• 2006-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,785 · +96.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.