3105 SE Covenant #48

Grimes, IA 50111

$32,800D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,452/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$172
• Tax + insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $921/mo
• Annual: $11,048/yr
• Cap rate: 39.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 120.29%
• DSCR: 6.35
• 1% rule: 4.43%
• Cash to close: $9,184

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $33k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $32k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $227 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $984 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#106 in IA, #2,080 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston Community School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #24 of 289 in IA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 327 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 40.0% vs local median 2.3% in Grimes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.